Calgary-Bow

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, NDP would take Calgary-Bow from the UCP, with 46.3% to 44.3%. That is leaning (55% of simulated elections).

UCP49.7% → 44.3%
NDP47.4% → 46.3%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 2.1 points (2023: UCP by 2.4). UCP win Calgary-Bow if their lead province-wide is more than about +4.2 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Calgary-Bow changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Calgary-Bow is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Calgary-Bow: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Demetrios Nicolaides (UCP) won Calgary-Bow in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 49.7% of the vote, 623 votes (2.4 points) ahead of Druh Farrell (NDP). 26,486 valid votes were counted; turnout was 66.8%.

Demetrios Nicolaides
Elected for United Conservative
623 voteswinning margin (2.4 points)
Demetrios Nicolaides 49.7%Druh Farrell 47.4%Paul Godard 2.5%Manuel Santos 0.3%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Calgary-Bow 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Demetrios NicolaideselectedUnited Conservative13,175
49.7%
Druh FarrellNew Democratic12,552
47.4%
Paul GodardAlberta Party670
2.5%
Manuel SantosSolidarity Movement89
0.3%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 10th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 623 votes (2.4 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Demetrios Nicolaides took 49.7% here, 2.9 points below that.
  • Turnout was 66.8%, 6.3 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 39,963 electors were registered; 179 ballots were rejected and 11 were declined.

Nearby divisions