Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock, with 65.4% to 31.3%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP74.3% → 65.4%
NDP25.7% → 31.3%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 34.1 points (2023: UCP by 48.6). UCP win Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock if their lead province-wide is more than about −32.0 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Glenn Van Dijken (UCP) won Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 74.3% of the vote, 10,230 votes (48.6 points) ahead of Landen Tischer (NDP). 21,032 valid votes were counted; turnout was 62.7%.

Glenn Van Dijken
Elected for United Conservative
10,230 voteswinning margin (48.6 points)
Glenn Van Dijken 74.3%Landen Tischer 25.7%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Glenn Van DijkenelectedUnited Conservative15,631
74.3%
Landen TischerNew Democratic5,401
25.7%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 79th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 10,230 votes (48.6 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Glenn Van Dijken took 74.3% here, 21.7 points above that.
  • Turnout was 62.7%, 2.2 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 33,815 electors were registered; 155 ballots were rejected and 12 were declined.

Nearby divisions