Morinville-St. Albert

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Morinville-St. Albert, with 47.5% to 41.0%. That is likely (72% of simulated elections).

UCP51.8% → 47.5%
NDP45.1% → 41.0%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 6.4 points (2023: UCP by 6.7). UCP win Morinville-St. Albert if their lead province-wide is more than about −4.4 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Morinville-St. Albert changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Morinville-St. Albert is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Morinville-St. Albert: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Dale Nally (UCP) won Morinville-St. Albert in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 51.8% of the vote, 1,744 votes (6.7 points) ahead of Karen Shaw (NDP). 26,020 valid votes were counted; turnout was 66.1%.

Dale Nally
Elected for United Conservative
1,744 voteswinning margin (6.7 points)
Dale Nally 51.8%Karen Shaw 45.1%Wayne Rufiange 2.3%Kurt Klingbeil 0.9%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Morinville-St. Albert 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Dale NallyelectedUnited Conservative13,472
51.8%
Karen ShawNew Democratic11,728
45.1%
Wayne RufiangeAlberta Party590
2.3%
Kurt KlingbeilGreen230
0.9%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 16th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 1,744 votes (6.7 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Dale Nally took 51.8% here, 0.8 points below that.
  • Turnout was 66.1%, 5.6 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 39,597 electors were registered; 138 ballots were rejected and 8 were declined.

Nearby divisions