Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin, with 58.6% to 33.5%. That is very likely (99% of simulated elections).

UCP67.5% → 58.6%
NDP27.9% → 33.5%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 25.1 points (2023: UCP by 39.7). UCP win Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin if their lead province-wide is more than about −23.1 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Rick Wilson (UCP) won Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 67.5% of the vote, 6,839 votes (39.7 points) ahead of Katherine Swampy (NDP). 17,234 valid votes were counted; turnout was 58.7%.

Rick Wilson
Elected for United Conservative
6,839 voteswinning margin (39.7 points)
Rick Wilson 67.5%Katherine Swampy 27.9%Marie Rittenhouse 3%Justin Fuss 1.1%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Rick WilsonelectedUnited Conservative11,640
67.5%
Katherine SwampyNew Democratic4,801
27.9%
Marie RittenhouseIndependent520
3%
Justin FussGreen187
1.1%
Suzanne JubbSolidarity Movement86
0.5%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 60th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 6,839 votes (39.7 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Rick Wilson took 67.5% here, 14.9 points above that.
  • Turnout was 58.7%, 1.8 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 29,442 electors were registered; 52 ballots were rejected and 3 were declined.

Nearby divisions