Livingstone-Macleod

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Livingstone-Macleod, with 58.0% to 32.0%. That is very likely (99% of simulated elections).

UCP66.9% → 58.0%
NDP26.4% → 32.0%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 26.1 points (2023: UCP by 40.6). UCP win Livingstone-Macleod if their lead province-wide is more than about −24.0 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Livingstone-Macleod changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Livingstone-Macleod is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Livingstone-Macleod: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Chelsae Petrovic (UCP) won Livingstone-Macleod in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 66.9% of the vote, 9,999 votes (40.6 points) ahead of Kevin Van Tighem (NDP). 24,635 valid votes were counted; turnout was 66.2%.

Chelsae Petrovic
Elected for United Conservative
9,999 voteswinning margin (40.6 points)
Chelsae Petrovic 66.9%Kevin Van Tighem 26.4%Kevin Todd 4%Corrie Reed Toone 1.4%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Livingstone-Macleod 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Chelsae PetrovicelectedUnited Conservative16,491
66.9%
Kevin Van TighemNew Democratic6,492
26.4%
Kevin ToddAlberta Party975
4%
Corrie Reed TooneIndependence Party353
1.4%
Dylin HauserLiberal194
0.8%
Erik AbildgaardIndependent130
0.5%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 77th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 9,999 votes (40.6 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Chelsae Petrovic took 66.9% here, 14.3 points above that.
  • Turnout was 66.2%, 5.7 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 37,419 electors were registered; 115 ballots were rejected and 7 were declined.

Nearby divisions