Airdrie-Cochrane

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Airdrie-Cochrane, with 54.6% to 36.3%. That is very likely (94% of simulated elections).

UCP60.1% → 54.6%
NDP37.3% → 36.3%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 18.4 points (2023: UCP by 22.8). UCP win Airdrie-Cochrane if their lead province-wide is more than about −16.3 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Airdrie-Cochrane changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Airdrie-Cochrane is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Airdrie-Cochrane: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Peter Guthrie (UCP) won Airdrie-Cochrane in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 60.1% of the vote, 6,851 votes (22.8 points) ahead of Shaun Fluker (NDP). 30,072 valid votes were counted; turnout was 66.5%.

Peter Guthrie
Elected for United Conservative
6,851 voteswinning margin (22.8 points)
Peter Guthrie 60.1%Shaun Fluker 37.3%Michelle Overwater Giles 1.3%Michael Andrusco 0.7%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Airdrie-Cochrane 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Peter GuthrieelectedUnited Conservative18,074
60.1%
Shaun FlukerNew Democratic11,223
37.3%
Michelle Overwater GilesGreen393
1.3%
Michael AndruscoSolidarity Movement199
0.7%
Ron VossWildrose Loyalty Coalition183
0.6%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 61st-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 6,851 votes (22.8 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Peter Guthrie took 60.1% here, 7.5 points above that.
  • Turnout was 66.5%, 6 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 45,540 electors were registered; 201 ballots were rejected and 12 were declined.

Nearby divisions