Cypress-Medicine Hat

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Cypress-Medicine Hat, with 53.0% to 40.9%. That is likely (86% of simulated elections).

UCP61.9% → 53.0%
NDP35.3% → 40.9%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 12.0 points (2023: UCP by 26.6). UCP win Cypress-Medicine Hat if their lead province-wide is more than about −10.0 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Cypress-Medicine Hat changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Cypress-Medicine Hat is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Cypress-Medicine Hat: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Justin Wright (UCP) won Cypress-Medicine Hat in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 61.9% of the vote, 5,792 votes (26.6 points) ahead of Cathy Hogg (NDP). 21,795 valid votes were counted; turnout was 57.6%.

Justin Wright
Elected for United Conservative
5,792 voteswinning margin (26.6 points)
Justin Wright 61.9%Cathy Hogg 35.3%Matt Orr 1.5%Cody Ray Both 1.3%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Cypress-Medicine Hat 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Justin WrightelectedUnited Conservative13,489
61.9%
Cathy HoggNew Democratic7,697
35.3%
Matt OrrWildrose Loyalty Coalition322
1.5%
Cody Ray BothIndependence Party287
1.3%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 55th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 5,792 votes (26.6 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Justin Wright took 61.9% here, 9.3 points above that.
  • Turnout was 57.6%, 2.9 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 38,036 electors were registered; 120 ballots were rejected and 2 were declined.

Nearby divisions