Chestermere-Strathmore

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Chestermere-Strathmore, with 64.2% to 26.7%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP69.7% → 64.2%
NDP27.8% → 26.7%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 37.5 points (2023: UCP by 41.9). UCP win Chestermere-Strathmore if their lead province-wide is more than about −35.4 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Chestermere-Strathmore changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Calgary polling

Chestermere-Strathmore is projected from the Calgary poll average: UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202646%45%

This is a model, not a poll of Chestermere-Strathmore: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Calgary polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Chantelle De Jonge (UCP) won Chestermere-Strathmore in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 69.7% of the vote, 9,243 votes (41.9 points) ahead of Raj Jessel (NDP). 22,048 valid votes were counted; turnout was 58.9%.

Chantelle De Jonge
Elected for United Conservative
9,243 voteswinning margin (41.9 points)
Chantelle De Jonge 69.7%Raj Jessel 27.8%Kerry Lambert 1.2%Terry Nicholls 1.2%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Chestermere-Strathmore 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Chantelle De JongeelectedUnited Conservative15,362
69.7%
Raj JesselNew Democratic6,119
27.8%
Kerry LambertIndependence Party264
1.2%
Terry NichollsIndependent258
1.2%
Jed LaboucaneSolidarity Movement45
0.2%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 73rd-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 9,243 votes (41.9 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Chantelle De Jonge took 69.7% here, 17.1 points above that.
  • Turnout was 58.9%, 1.6 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 37,715 electors were registered; 133 ballots were rejected and 25 were declined.

Nearby divisions