Central Peace-Notley

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Central Peace-Notley, with 68.8% to 24.2%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP77.7% → 68.8%
NDP18.6% → 24.2%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 44.6 points (2023: UCP by 59.1). UCP win Central Peace-Notley if their lead province-wide is more than about −42.5 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Central Peace-Notley changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Central Peace-Notley is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Central Peace-Notley: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Todd Loewen (UCP) won Central Peace-Notley in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 77.7% of the vote, 7,064 votes (59.1 points) ahead of Megan Ciurysek (NDP). 11,946 valid votes were counted; turnout was 62%.

Todd Loewen
Elected for United Conservative
7,064 voteswinning margin (59.1 points)
Todd Loewen 77.7%Megan Ciurysek 18.6%Rodney Bowen 2%Lynn Lekisch 1.4%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Central Peace-Notley 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Todd LoewenelectedUnited Conservative9,280
77.7%
Megan CiurysekNew Democratic2,216
18.6%
Rodney BowenIndependence Party238
2%
Lynn LekischAlberta Party166
1.4%
Nancy O'NeillSolidarity Movement46
0.4%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 62nd-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 7,064 votes (59.1 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Todd Loewen took 77.7% here, 25.1 points above that.
  • Turnout was 62%, 1.5 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 19,380 electors were registered; 63 ballots were rejected and 7 were declined.

Nearby divisions