Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul, with 66.6% to 30.2%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP75.5% → 66.6%
NDP24.5% → 30.2%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 36.4 points (2023: UCP by 50.9). UCP win Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul if their lead province-wide is more than about −34.3 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Scott Cyr (UCP) won Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 75.5% of the vote, 8,988 votes (50.9 points) ahead of Caitlyn Blake (NDP). 17,642 valid votes were counted; turnout was 52.9%.

Scott Cyr
Elected for United Conservative
8,988 voteswinning margin (50.9 points)
Scott Cyr 75.5%Caitlyn Blake 24.5%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Scott CyrelectedUnited Conservative13,315
75.5%
Caitlyn BlakeNew Democratic4,327
24.5%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 71st-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 8,988 votes (50.9 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Scott Cyr took 75.5% here, 22.9 points above that.
  • Turnout was 52.9%, 7.6 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 33,533 electors were registered; 89 ballots were rejected and 3 were declined.

Nearby divisions