Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright, with 65.5% to 23.1%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP74.4% → 65.5%
NDP17.5% → 23.1%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 42.4 points (2023: UCP by 56.9). UCP win Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright if their lead province-wide is more than about −40.3 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Garth Rowswell (UCP) won Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 74.4% of the vote, 10,022 votes (56.9 points) ahead of Dawn Flaata (NDP). 17,604 valid votes were counted; turnout was 55%.

Garth Rowswell
Elected for United Conservative
10,022 voteswinning margin (56.9 points)
Garth Rowswell 74.4%Dawn Flaata 17.5%Darrell Dunn 2.7%Danny Hozack 2.6%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Garth RowswellelectedUnited Conservative13,097
74.4%
Dawn FlaataNew Democratic3,075
17.5%
Darrell DunnAlberta Party475
2.7%
Danny HozackWildrose Loyalty Coalition460
2.6%
Matthew PowellIndependent351
2%
Tigra-Lee CampbellGreen146
0.8%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 78th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 10,022 votes (56.9 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Garth Rowswell took 74.4% here, 21.8 points above that.
  • Turnout was 55%, 5.5 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 32,123 electors were registered; 68 ballots were rejected and 5 were declined.

Nearby divisions