Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville, with 53.8% to 33.2%. That is very likely (96% of simulated elections).

UCP58.1% → 53.8%
NDP37.3% → 33.2%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 20.6 points (2023: UCP by 20.8). UCP win Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville if their lead province-wide is more than about −18.5 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk (UCP) won Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 58.1% of the vote, 5,062 votes (20.8 points) ahead of Taneen Rudyk (NDP). 24,326 valid votes were counted; turnout was 61%.

Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk
Elected for United Conservative
5,062 voteswinning margin (20.8 points)
Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk 58.1%Taneen Rudyk 37.3%Kathy Flett 3.3%Kelly Zeleny 0.9%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Jackie Armstrong-HomeniukelectedUnited Conservative14,126
58.1%
Taneen RudykNew Democratic9,064
37.3%
Kathy FlettIndependent801
3.3%
Kelly ZelenyAdvantage Party227
0.9%
Granny Margaret MackaySolidarity Movement108
0.4%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 51st-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 5,062 votes (20.8 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk took 58.1% here, 5.5 points above that.
  • Turnout was 61%, 0.5 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 40,114 electors were registered; 142 ballots were rejected and 12 were declined.

Nearby divisions