Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, with 58.8% to 25.3%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP67.7% → 58.8%
NDP19.7% → 25.3%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 33.5 points (2023: UCP by 48.0). UCP win Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo if their lead province-wide is more than about −31.4 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Tany Yao (UCP) won Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 67.7% of the vote, 4,599 votes (48 points) ahead of Tanika Chaisson (NDP). 9,578 valid votes were counted; turnout was 42%.

Tany Yao
Elected for United Conservative
4,599 voteswinning margin (48 points)
Tany Yao 67.7%Tanika Chaisson 19.7%Funky Banjoko 6.5%Zulkifl Mujahid 3.5%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Tany YaoelectedUnited Conservative6,483
67.7%
Tanika ChaissonNew Democratic1,884
19.7%
Funky BanjokoIndependent625
6.5%
Zulkifl MujahidIndependent331
3.5%
Bradley FriesenAlberta Party255
2.7%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 44th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 4,599 votes (48 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Tany Yao took 67.7% here, 15.1 points above that.
  • Turnout was 42%, 18.5 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 23,034 electors were registered; 82 ballots were rejected and 4 were declined.

Nearby divisions