Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, with 64.7% to 30.1%. That is very likely (100% of simulated elections).

UCP73.6% → 64.7%
NDP24.5% → 30.1%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 34.5 points (2023: UCP by 49.1). UCP win Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche if their lead province-wide is more than about −32.5 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of Alberta polling

Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche is projected from the Rest of Alberta poll average: UCP 58.4%, NDP 33.3%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202658%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of Alberta polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Brian Jean (UCP) won Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 73.6% of the vote, 5,131 votes (49.1 points) ahead of Calan William Simeon Hobbs (NDP). 10,455 valid votes were counted; turnout was 44.1%.

Brian Jean
Elected for United Conservative
5,131 voteswinning margin (49.1 points)
Brian Jean 73.6%Calan William Simeon Hobbs 24.5%KDM Kevin Johnston 1.9%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Brian JeanelectedUnited Conservative7,692
73.6%
Calan William Simeon HobbsNew Democratic2,561
24.5%
KDM Kevin JohnstonIndependent202
1.9%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 53rd-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 5,131 votes (49.1 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Brian Jean took 73.6% here, 21 points above that.
  • Turnout was 44.1%, 16.4 points below the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 23,889 electors were registered; 67 ballots were rejected and 3 were declined.

Nearby divisions