Strathcona-Sherwood Park

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Strathcona-Sherwood Park, with 48.8% to 40.5%. That is likely (77% of simulated elections).

UCP53.1% → 48.8%
NDP44.6% → 40.5%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 8.2 points (2023: UCP by 8.5). UCP win Strathcona-Sherwood Park if their lead province-wide is more than about −6.1 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Strathcona-Sherwood Park changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Strathcona-Sherwood Park is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Strathcona-Sherwood Park: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Nate Glubish (UCP) won Strathcona-Sherwood Park in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 53.1% of the vote, 2,219 votes (8.5 points) ahead of Bill Tonita (NDP). 26,125 valid votes were counted; turnout was 70%.

Nate Glubish
Elected for United Conservative
2,219 voteswinning margin (8.5 points)
Nate Glubish 53.1%Bill Tonita 44.6%Jody Balanko 2.4%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Strathcona-Sherwood Park 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Nate GlubishelectedUnited Conservative13,865
53.1%
Bill TonitaNew Democratic11,646
44.6%
Jody BalankoIndependent614
2.4%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 20th-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 2,219 votes (8.5 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Nate Glubish took 53.1% here, 0.5 points above that.
  • Turnout was 70%, 9.5 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 37,569 electors were registered; 153 ballots were rejected and 6 were declined.

Nearby divisions