Spruce Grove-Stony Plain

Poll projection for the October 18, 2027 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 23, 2026, UCP would hold Spruce Grove-Stony Plain, with 52.7% to 36.4%. That is very likely (92% of simulated elections).

UCP57.0% → 52.7%
NDP40.5% → 36.4%

Pale bar: 2023 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: UCP by 16.3 points (2023: UCP by 16.5). UCP win Spruce Grove-Stony Plain if their lead province-wide is more than about −14.2 points; the poll average puts it at +2.1.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereUCP win here2023 result (+8.6)Poll average (+2.1)

Province-wide lead in points (UCP minus NDP). The black line is where Spruce Grove-Stony Plain changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Edmonton polling

Spruce Grove-Stony Plain is projected from the Edmonton poll average: UCP 35.8%, NDP 52.6%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%20242025202653%36%

This is a model, not a poll of Spruce Grove-Stony Plain: pollsters do not survey individual divisions. It starts from the 2023 result here and moves it by the change in the Edmonton polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the Alberta poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2023 election results

Searle Turton (UCP) won Spruce Grove-Stony Plain in the May 29, 2023 Alberta general election with 57% of the vote, 4,168 votes (16.5 points) ahead of Chantal Saramaga-McKenzie (NDP). 25,207 valid votes were counted; turnout was 61.4%.

Searle Turton
Elected for United Conservative
4,168 voteswinning margin (16.5 points)
Searle Turton 57%Chantal Saramaga-McKenzie 40.5%Daniel Birrell 1.7%Darlene Clarke 0.9%

These are the 87 divisions used in the 2023 election. New boundaries are not yet law: an electoral boundaries commission recommended 89 divisions in March 2026, the government rejected that report in April, and a legislative committee was asked to draw a new map, aiming for 91 seats, by October 22, 2026. This map will be updated once new boundaries are adopted.

Results by candidate

Spruce Grove-Stony Plain 2023 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Searle TurtonelectedUnited Conservative14,365
57%
Chantal Saramaga-McKenzieNew Democratic10,197
40.5%
Daniel BirrellGreen422
1.7%
Darlene ClarkeSolidarity Movement223
0.9%

Source: Elections Alberta, Statement of Vote for the 2023 general election, and 2017 electoral division boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 42nd-closest race of 87 divisions: a margin of 4,168 votes (16.5 points).
  • United Conservative candidates won 52.6% of the vote across Alberta; Searle Turton took 57% here, 4.4 points above that.
  • Turnout was 61.4%, 0.9 points above the provincial figure of 60.5%.
  • 41,208 electors were registered; 100 ballots were rejected and 8 were declined.

Nearby divisions