Surrey-Fleetwood
Poll projection for the October 24, 2026 election
On The Electorate's poll average as of October 24, 2026, Conservatives would take Surrey-Fleetwood from the NDP, with 44.6% to 39.7%. That is leaning (66% of simulated elections).
Pale bar: 2024 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.
How close is it?
Projected margin: Conservatives by 4.8 points (2024: NDP by 3.7). Conservatives win Surrey-Fleetwood if their lead province-wide is more than about −1.5 points; the poll average puts it at +3.3.
Province-wide lead in points (CON minus NDP). The black line is where Surrey-Fleetwood changes hands, assuming every region moves together.
Metro Vancouver polling
Surrey-Fleetwood is projected from the Metro Vancouver poll average: Conservatives 39.9%, NDP 41.7%.
This is a model, not a poll of Surrey-Fleetwood: pollsters do not survey individual ridings. It starts from the 2024 result here and moves it by the change in the Metro Vancouver polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the British Columbia poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.
2024 election results
Jagrup Brar (NDP) won Surrey-Fleetwood in the October 19, 2024 British Columbia general election with 48.6% of the vote, 753 votes (3.7 points) ahead of Avtar Gill (CON). 20,414 valid votes were counted.
British Columbia votes on October 24, 2026, and all 93 seats are up for election. This map shows the 2024 results, the most recent completed election, on the same 93 riding boundaries. Many MLAs have changed party or sat as independents since 2024, so a riding's colour here is not always its current MLA's party. This page will be updated with the 2026 results once Elections BC publishes them.
Results by candidate
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jagrup Brarelected | New Democratic | 9,923 | 48.6% |
| Avtar Gill | Conservative | 9,170 | 44.9% |
| Tim Binnema | Green | 1,321 | 6.5% |
Source: Elections BC, official results of the 2024 general election, and the 2023 electoral district boundaries.
How it compares
- The 18th-closest race of 93 ridings: a margin of 753 votes (3.7 points).
- New Democratic candidates won 44.9% of the vote across British Columbia; Jagrup Brar took 48.6% here, 3.7 points above that.
Nearby ridings
- Surrey-Serpentine River · Linda Hepner (CON)
- Surrey City Centre · Amna Shah (NDP)
- Surrey-Guildford · Garry Begg (NDP)
- Surrey-Newton · Jessie Sunner (NDP)
- Surrey North · Mandeep Dhaliwal (CON)