Surrey-Cloverdale
Poll projection for the October 24, 2026 election
On The Electorate's poll average as of October 24, 2026, Conservatives would hold Surrey-Cloverdale, with 48.0% to 36.7%. That is likely (83% of simulated elections).
Pale bar: 2024 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.
How close is it?
Projected margin: Conservatives by 11.3 points (2024: Conservatives by 2.8). Conservatives win Surrey-Cloverdale if their lead province-wide is more than about −8.0 points; the poll average puts it at +3.3.
Province-wide lead in points (CON minus NDP). The black line is where Surrey-Cloverdale changes hands, assuming every region moves together.
Metro Vancouver polling
Surrey-Cloverdale is projected from the Metro Vancouver poll average: Conservatives 39.9%, NDP 41.7%.
This is a model, not a poll of Surrey-Cloverdale: pollsters do not survey individual ridings. It starts from the 2024 result here and moves it by the change in the Metro Vancouver polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the British Columbia poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.
2024 election results
Elenore Sturko (CON) won Surrey-Cloverdale in the October 19, 2024 British Columbia general election with 48.3% of the vote, 586 votes (2.8 points) ahead of Mike Starchuk (NDP). 21,253 valid votes were counted.
British Columbia votes on October 24, 2026, and all 93 seats are up for election. This map shows the 2024 results, the most recent completed election, on the same 93 riding boundaries. Many MLAs have changed party or sat as independents since 2024, so a riding's colour here is not always its current MLA's party. This page will be updated with the 2026 results once Elections BC publishes them.
Results by candidate
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elenore Sturkoelected | Conservative | 10,268 | 48.3% |
| Mike Starchuk | New Democratic | 9,682 | 45.6% |
| Pat McCutcheon | Green | 1,150 | 5.4% |
| Judy Meilleur | Freedom Party | 153 | 0.7% |
Source: Elections BC, official results of the 2024 general election, and the 2023 electoral district boundaries.
How it compares
- The 14th-closest race of 93 ridings: a margin of 586 votes (2.8 points).
- Conservative candidates won 43.3% of the vote across British Columbia; Elenore Sturko took 48.3% here, 5 points above that.
Nearby ridings
- Langley-Willowbrook · Jody Toor (CON)
- Surrey-Serpentine River · Linda Hepner (CON)
- Surrey-Guildford · Garry Begg (NDP)
- Surrey-Fleetwood · Jagrup Brar (NDP)
- Langley-Walnut Grove · Misty Van Popta (CON)