Surrey South
Poll projection for the October 24, 2026 election
On The Electorate's poll average as of October 24, 2026, Conservatives would hold Surrey South, with 58.5% to 32.3%. That is very likely (99% of simulated elections).
Pale bar: 2024 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.
How close is it?
Projected margin: Conservatives by 26.2 points (2024: Conservatives by 17.7). Conservatives win Surrey South if their lead province-wide is more than about −22.9 points; the poll average puts it at +3.3.
Province-wide lead in points (CON minus NDP). The black line is where Surrey South changes hands, assuming every region moves together.
Metro Vancouver polling
Surrey South is projected from the Metro Vancouver poll average: Conservatives 39.9%, NDP 41.7%.
This is a model, not a poll of Surrey South: pollsters do not survey individual ridings. It starts from the 2024 result here and moves it by the change in the Metro Vancouver polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the British Columbia poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.
2024 election results
Brent Chapman (CON) won Surrey South in the October 19, 2024 British Columbia general election with 58.8% of the vote, 3,920 votes (17.7 points) ahead of Haroon Ghaffar (NDP). 22,192 valid votes were counted.
British Columbia votes on October 24, 2026, and all 93 seats are up for election. This map shows the 2024 results, the most recent completed election, on the same 93 riding boundaries. Many MLAs have changed party or sat as independents since 2024, so a riding's colour here is not always its current MLA's party. This page will be updated with the 2026 results once Elections BC publishes them.
Results by candidate
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Chapmanelected | Conservative | 13,056 | 58.8% |
| Haroon Ghaffar | New Democratic | 9,136 | 41.2% |
Source: Elections BC, official results of the 2024 general election, and the 2023 electoral district boundaries.
How it compares
- The 57th-closest race of 93 ridings: a margin of 3,920 votes (17.7 points).
- Conservative candidates won 43.3% of the vote across British Columbia; Brent Chapman took 58.8% here, 15.5 points above that.
Nearby ridings
- Surrey-White Rock · Trevor Halford (CON)
- Surrey-Panorama · Bryan Tepper (CON)
- Surrey-Serpentine River · Linda Hepner (CON)
- Surrey-Cloverdale · Elenore Sturko (CON)
- Surrey-Newton · Jessie Sunner (NDP)