North Vancouver-Lonsdale
Poll projection for the October 24, 2026 election
On The Electorate's poll average as of October 24, 2026, NDP would hold North Vancouver-Lonsdale, with 56.0% to 34.8%. That is very likely (97% of simulated elections).
Pale bar: 2024 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.
How close is it?
Projected margin: NDP by 21.2 points (2024: NDP by 29.8). Conservatives win North Vancouver-Lonsdale if their lead province-wide is more than about +24.5 points; the poll average puts it at +3.3.
Province-wide lead in points (CON minus NDP). The black line is where North Vancouver-Lonsdale changes hands, assuming every region moves together.
Metro Vancouver polling
North Vancouver-Lonsdale is projected from the Metro Vancouver poll average: Conservatives 39.9%, NDP 41.7%.
This is a model, not a poll of North Vancouver-Lonsdale: pollsters do not survey individual ridings. It starts from the 2024 result here and moves it by the change in the Metro Vancouver polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the British Columbia poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.
2024 election results
Bowinn Ma (NDP) won North Vancouver-Lonsdale in the October 19, 2024 British Columbia general election with 64.9% of the vote, 7,686 votes (29.8 points) ahead of David Splett (CON). 25,832 valid votes were counted.
British Columbia votes on October 24, 2026, and all 93 seats are up for election. This map shows the 2024 results, the most recent completed election, on the same 93 riding boundaries. Many MLAs have changed party or sat as independents since 2024, so a riding's colour here is not always its current MLA's party. This page will be updated with the 2026 results once Elections BC publishes them.
Results by candidate
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bowinn Maelected | New Democratic | 16,759 | 64.9% |
| David Splett | Conservative | 9,073 | 35.1% |
Source: Elections BC, official results of the 2024 general election, and the 2023 electoral district boundaries.
How it compares
- The 85th-closest race of 93 ridings: a margin of 7,686 votes (29.8 points).
- New Democratic candidates won 44.9% of the vote across British Columbia; Bowinn Ma took 64.9% here, 20 points above that.
Nearby ridings
- Vancouver-West End · Spencer Chandra Herbert (NDP)
- Vancouver-Yaletown · Terry Yung (NDP)
- Vancouver-Strathcona · Joan Phillip (NDP)
- Vancouver-Hastings · Niki Sharma (NDP)
- Vancouver-South Granville · Brenda Bailey (NDP)