Vancouver-West End

Poll projection for the October 24, 2026 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 24, 2026, NDP would hold Vancouver-West End, with 54.1% to 26.9%. That is very likely (99% of simulated elections).

Conservatives27.2% → 26.9%
NDP63.0% → 54.1%

Pale bar: 2024 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 27.3 points (2024: NDP by 35.8). Conservatives win Vancouver-West End if their lead province-wide is more than about +30.6 points; the poll average puts it at +3.3.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereConservatives win here2024 result (−1.6)Poll average (+3.3)

Province-wide lead in points (CON minus NDP). The black line is where Vancouver-West End changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Metro Vancouver polling

Vancouver-West End is projected from the Metro Vancouver poll average: Conservatives 39.9%, NDP 41.7%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%42%40%

This is a model, not a poll of Vancouver-West End: pollsters do not survey individual ridings. It starts from the 2024 result here and moves it by the change in the Metro Vancouver polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the British Columbia poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2024 election results

Spencer Chandra Herbert (NDP) won Vancouver-West End in the October 19, 2024 British Columbia general election with 63% of the vote, 7,466 votes (35.8 points) ahead of Jon Ellacott (CON). 20,857 valid votes were counted.

Spencer Chandra Herbert
Elected for New Democratic
7,466 voteswinning margin (35.8 points)
Spencer Chandra Herbert 63%Jon Ellacott 27.2%Eoin O'Dwyer 9.1%Carl Turnbull 0.7%

British Columbia votes on October 24, 2026, and all 93 seats are up for election. This map shows the 2024 results, the most recent completed election, on the same 93 riding boundaries. Many MLAs have changed party or sat as independents since 2024, so a riding's colour here is not always its current MLA's party. This page will be updated with the 2026 results once Elections BC publishes them.

Results by candidate

Vancouver-West End 2024 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Spencer Chandra HerbertelectedNew Democratic13,143
63%
Jon EllacottConservative5,677
27.2%
Eoin O'DwyerGreen1,893
9.1%
Carl TurnbullIndependent144
0.7%

Source: Elections BC, official results of the 2024 general election, and the 2023 electoral district boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 84th-closest race of 93 ridings: a margin of 7,466 votes (35.8 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44.9% of the vote across British Columbia; Spencer Chandra Herbert took 63% here, 18.1 points above that.

Nearby ridings