Courtenay-Comox
Poll projection for the October 24, 2026 election
On The Electorate's poll average as of October 24, 2026, Conservatives would hold Courtenay-Comox, with 38.7% to 35.6%. That is leaning (60% of simulated elections).
Pale bar: 2024 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.
How close is it?
Projected margin: Conservatives by 3.1 points (2024: Conservatives by 0.3). Conservatives win Courtenay-Comox if their lead province-wide is more than about +0.2 points; the poll average puts it at +3.3.
Province-wide lead in points (CON minus NDP). The black line is where Courtenay-Comox changes hands, assuming every region moves together.
Vancouver Island polling
Courtenay-Comox is projected from the Vancouver Island poll average: Conservatives 32.3%, NDP 43.2%.
This is a model, not a poll of Courtenay-Comox: pollsters do not survey individual ridings. It starts from the 2024 result here and moves it by the change in the Vancouver Island polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the British Columbia poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.
2024 election results
Brennan Day (CON) won Courtenay-Comox in the October 19, 2024 British Columbia general election with 38.8% of the vote, 93 votes (0.3 points) ahead of Ronna-Rae Leonard (NDP). 34,718 valid votes were counted.
British Columbia votes on October 24, 2026, and all 93 seats are up for election. This map shows the 2024 results, the most recent completed election, on the same 93 riding boundaries. Many MLAs have changed party or sat as independents since 2024, so a riding's colour here is not always its current MLA's party. This page will be updated with the 2026 results once Elections BC publishes them.
Results by candidate
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brennan Dayelected | Conservative | 13,481 | 38.8% |
| Ronna-Rae Leonard | New Democratic | 13,388 | 38.6% |
| Arzeena Hamir | Green | 7,202 | 20.7% |
| John Hedican | Independent | 504 | 1.5% |
| Devin Howell | Independent | 143 | 0.4% |
Source: Elections BC, official results of the 2024 general election, and the 2023 electoral district boundaries.
How it compares
- The 3rd-closest race of 93 ridings: a margin of 93 votes (0.3 points).
- Conservative candidates won 43.3% of the vote across British Columbia; Brennan Day took 38.8% here, 4.5 points below that.
Nearby ridings
- Powell River-Sunshine Coast · Randene Neill (NDP)
- Mid Island-Pacific Rim · Josie Osborne (NDP)
- Ladysmith-Oceanside · Stephanie Higginson (NDP)
- Nanaimo-Lantzville · George Anderson (NDP)
- Nanaimo-Gabriola Island · Sheila Malcolmson (NDP)