Nanaimo-Gabriola Island
Poll projection for the October 24, 2026 election
On The Electorate's poll average as of October 24, 2026, NDP would hold Nanaimo-Gabriola Island, with 49.8% to 34.6%. That is very likely (91% of simulated elections).
Pale bar: 2024 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.
How close is it?
Projected margin: NDP by 15.2 points (2024: NDP by 18.1). Conservatives win Nanaimo-Gabriola Island if their lead province-wide is more than about +18.5 points; the poll average puts it at +3.3.
Province-wide lead in points (CON minus NDP). The black line is where Nanaimo-Gabriola Island changes hands, assuming every region moves together.
Vancouver Island polling
Nanaimo-Gabriola Island is projected from the Vancouver Island poll average: Conservatives 32.3%, NDP 43.2%.
This is a model, not a poll of Nanaimo-Gabriola Island: pollsters do not survey individual ridings. It starts from the 2024 result here and moves it by the change in the Vancouver Island polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the British Columbia poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.
2024 election results
Sheila Malcolmson (NDP) won Nanaimo-Gabriola Island in the October 19, 2024 British Columbia general election with 52.7% of the vote, 5,030 votes (18.1 points) ahead of Dale Parker (CON). 27,798 valid votes were counted.
British Columbia votes on October 24, 2026, and all 93 seats are up for election. This map shows the 2024 results, the most recent completed election, on the same 93 riding boundaries. Many MLAs have changed party or sat as independents since 2024, so a riding's colour here is not always its current MLA's party. This page will be updated with the 2026 results once Elections BC publishes them.
Results by candidate
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheila Malcolmsonelected | New Democratic | 14,663 | 52.7% |
| Dale Parker | Conservative | 9,633 | 34.7% |
| Shirley Lambrecht | Green | 3,502 | 12.6% |
Source: Elections BC, official results of the 2024 general election, and the 2023 electoral district boundaries.
How it compares
- The 68th-closest race of 93 ridings: a margin of 5,030 votes (18.1 points).
- New Democratic candidates won 44.9% of the vote across British Columbia; Sheila Malcolmson took 52.7% here, 7.8 points above that.
Nearby ridings
- Nanaimo-Lantzville · George Anderson (NDP)
- Richmond-Bridgeport · Teresa Wat (CON)
- Ladysmith-Oceanside · Stephanie Higginson (NDP)
- Cowichan Valley · Debra Toporowski (NDP)
- Vancouver-Point Grey · David Eby (NDP)