Vernon-Lumby
Poll projection for the October 24, 2026 election
On The Electorate's poll average as of October 24, 2026, NDP would hold Vernon-Lumby, with 39.9% to 39.0%. That is a toss-up (52% of simulated elections).
Pale bar: 2024 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.
How close is it?
Projected margin: NDP by 0.8 points (2024: NDP by 1.7). Conservatives win Vernon-Lumby if their lead province-wide is more than about +4.1 points; the poll average puts it at +3.3.
Province-wide lead in points (CON minus NDP). The black line is where Vernon-Lumby changes hands, assuming every region moves together.
Rest of B.C. polling
Vernon-Lumby is projected from the Rest of B.C. poll average: Conservatives 48.1%, NDP 33.4%.
This is a model, not a poll of Vernon-Lumby: pollsters do not survey individual ridings. It starts from the 2024 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of B.C. polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the British Columbia poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.
2024 election results
Harwinder Sandhu (NDP) won Vernon-Lumby in the October 19, 2024 British Columbia general election with 42.7% of the vote, 476 votes (1.7 points) ahead of Dennis Giesbrecht (CON). 27,729 valid votes were counted.
British Columbia votes on October 24, 2026, and all 93 seats are up for election. This map shows the 2024 results, the most recent completed election, on the same 93 riding boundaries. Many MLAs have changed party or sat as independents since 2024, so a riding's colour here is not always its current MLA's party. This page will be updated with the 2026 results once Elections BC publishes them.
Results by candidate
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harwinder Sandhuelected | New Democratic | 11,837 | 42.7% |
| Dennis Giesbrecht | Conservative | 11,361 | 41% |
| Kevin Acton | No affiliation | 4,266 | 15.4% |
| Robert Johnson | Libertarian | 265 | 1% |
Source: Elections BC, official results of the 2024 general election, and the 2023 electoral district boundaries.
How it compares
- The 12th-closest race of 93 ridings: a margin of 476 votes (1.7 points).
- New Democratic candidates won 44.9% of the vote across British Columbia; Harwinder Sandhu took 42.7% here, 2.2 points below that.
Nearby ridings
- Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream · Tara Armstrong (CON)
- Kelowna Centre · Kristina Loewen (CON)
- West Kelowna-Peachland · Macklin McCall (CON)
- Kelowna-Mission · Gavin Dew (CON)
- Salmon Arm-Shuswap · David L. Williams (CON)