Kelowna-Mission
Poll projection for the October 24, 2026 election
On The Electorate's poll average as of October 24, 2026, Conservatives would hold Kelowna-Mission, with 49.6% to 29.8%. That is very likely (96% of simulated elections).
Pale bar: 2024 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.
How close is it?
Projected margin: Conservatives by 19.8 points (2024: Conservatives by 18.9). Conservatives win Kelowna-Mission if their lead province-wide is more than about −16.5 points; the poll average puts it at +3.3.
Province-wide lead in points (CON minus NDP). The black line is where Kelowna-Mission changes hands, assuming every region moves together.
Rest of B.C. polling
Kelowna-Mission is projected from the Rest of B.C. poll average: Conservatives 48.1%, NDP 33.4%.
This is a model, not a poll of Kelowna-Mission: pollsters do not survey individual ridings. It starts from the 2024 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of B.C. polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the British Columbia poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.
2024 election results
Gavin Dew (CON) won Kelowna-Mission in the October 19, 2024 British Columbia general election with 51.5% of the vote, 5,158 votes (18.9 points) ahead of Harpreet Badohal (NDP). 27,329 valid votes were counted.
British Columbia votes on October 24, 2026, and all 93 seats are up for election. This map shows the 2024 results, the most recent completed election, on the same 93 riding boundaries. Many MLAs have changed party or sat as independents since 2024, so a riding's colour here is not always its current MLA's party. This page will be updated with the 2026 results once Elections BC publishes them.
Results by candidate
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Dewelected | Conservative | 14,071 | 51.5% |
| Harpreet Badohal | New Democratic | 8,913 | 32.6% |
| Ashley Ramsay | No affiliation | 2,996 | 11% |
| Billy Young | Green | 1,349 | 4.9% |
Source: Elections BC, official results of the 2024 general election, and the 2023 electoral district boundaries.
How it compares
- The 70th-closest race of 93 ridings: a margin of 5,158 votes (18.9 points).
- Conservative candidates won 43.3% of the vote across British Columbia; Gavin Dew took 51.5% here, 8.2 points above that.
Nearby ridings
- Kelowna Centre · Kristina Loewen (CON)
- Penticton-Summerland · Amelia Boultbee (CON)
- West Kelowna-Peachland · Macklin McCall (CON)
- Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream · Tara Armstrong (CON)
- Boundary-Similkameen · Donegal Wilson (CON)