Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream

Poll projection for the October 24, 2026 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 24, 2026, Conservatives would hold Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream, with 52.0% to 32.4%. That is very likely (96% of simulated elections).

Conservatives53.9% → 52.0%
NDP35.2% → 32.4%

Pale bar: 2024 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: Conservatives by 19.6 points (2024: Conservatives by 18.7). Conservatives win Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream if their lead province-wide is more than about −16.3 points; the poll average puts it at +3.3.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereConservatives win here2024 result (−1.6)Poll average (+3.3)

Province-wide lead in points (CON minus NDP). The black line is where Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of B.C. polling

Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream is projected from the Rest of B.C. poll average: Conservatives 48.1%, NDP 33.4%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%48%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream: pollsters do not survey individual ridings. It starts from the 2024 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of B.C. polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the British Columbia poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2024 election results

Tara Armstrong (CON) won Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream in the October 19, 2024 British Columbia general election with 53.9% of the vote, 4,953 votes (18.7 points) ahead of Anna Warwick Sears (NDP). 26,528 valid votes were counted.

Tara Armstrong
Elected for Conservative
4,953 voteswinning margin (18.7 points)
Tara Armstrong 53.9%Anna Warwick Sears 35.2%Kevin Kraft 6.5%Andrew Rose 4.3%

British Columbia votes on October 24, 2026, and all 93 seats are up for election. This map shows the 2024 results, the most recent completed election, on the same 93 riding boundaries. Many MLAs have changed party or sat as independents since 2024, so a riding's colour here is not always its current MLA's party. This page will be updated with the 2026 results once Elections BC publishes them.

Results by candidate

Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream 2024 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Tara ArmstrongelectedConservative14,303
53.9%
Anna Warwick SearsNew Democratic9,350
35.2%
Kevin KraftIndependent1,724
6.5%
Andrew RoseGreen1,151
4.3%

Source: Elections BC, official results of the 2024 general election, and the 2023 electoral district boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 67th-closest race of 93 ridings: a margin of 4,953 votes (18.7 points).
  • Conservative candidates won 43.3% of the vote across British Columbia; Tara Armstrong took 53.9% here, 10.6 points above that.

Nearby ridings