Vancouver-Kensington
Poll projection for the October 24, 2026 election
On The Electorate's poll average as of October 24, 2026, NDP would hold Vancouver-Kensington, with 52.0% to 31.2%. That is very likely (97% of simulated elections).
Pale bar: 2024 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.
How close is it?
Projected margin: NDP by 20.9 points (2024: NDP by 29.4). Conservatives win Vancouver-Kensington if their lead province-wide is more than about +24.2 points; the poll average puts it at +3.3.
Province-wide lead in points (CON minus NDP). The black line is where Vancouver-Kensington changes hands, assuming every region moves together.
Metro Vancouver polling
Vancouver-Kensington is projected from the Metro Vancouver poll average: Conservatives 39.9%, NDP 41.7%.
This is a model, not a poll of Vancouver-Kensington: pollsters do not survey individual ridings. It starts from the 2024 result here and moves it by the change in the Metro Vancouver polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the British Columbia poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.
2024 election results
Mable Elmore (NDP) won Vancouver-Kensington in the October 19, 2024 British Columbia general election with 60.9% of the vote, 5,652 votes (29.4 points) ahead of Syed Mohsin (CON). 19,232 valid votes were counted.
British Columbia votes on October 24, 2026, and all 93 seats are up for election. This map shows the 2024 results, the most recent completed election, on the same 93 riding boundaries. Many MLAs have changed party or sat as independents since 2024, so a riding's colour here is not always its current MLA's party. This page will be updated with the 2026 results once Elections BC publishes them.
Results by candidate
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mable Elmoreelected | New Democratic | 11,713 | 60.9% |
| Syed Mohsin | Conservative | 6,061 | 31.5% |
| Amy Fox | Green | 1,458 | 7.6% |
Source: Elections BC, official results of the 2024 general election, and the 2023 electoral district boundaries.
How it compares
- The 75th-closest race of 93 ridings: a margin of 5,652 votes (29.4 points).
- New Democratic candidates won 44.9% of the vote across British Columbia; Mable Elmore took 60.9% here, 16 points above that.
Nearby ridings
- Vancouver-Renfrew · Adrian Dix (NDP)
- Vancouver-Little Mountain · Christine Boyle (NDP)
- Vancouver-Fraserview · George Chow (NDP)
- Vancouver-Strathcona · Joan Phillip (NDP)
- Vancouver-Langara · Sunita Dhir (NDP)