Juan de Fuca-Malahat
Poll projection for the October 24, 2026 election
On The Electorate's poll average as of October 24, 2026, Conservatives would take Juan de Fuca-Malahat from the NDP, with 38.1% to 35.8%. That is leaning (58% of simulated elections).
Pale bar: 2024 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.
How close is it?
Projected margin: Conservatives by 2.3 points (2024: NDP by 0.6). Conservatives win Juan de Fuca-Malahat if their lead province-wide is more than about +1.0 points; the poll average puts it at +3.3.
Province-wide lead in points (CON minus NDP). The black line is where Juan de Fuca-Malahat changes hands, assuming every region moves together.
Vancouver Island polling
Juan de Fuca-Malahat is projected from the Vancouver Island poll average: Conservatives 32.3%, NDP 43.2%.
This is a model, not a poll of Juan de Fuca-Malahat: pollsters do not survey individual ridings. It starts from the 2024 result here and moves it by the change in the Vancouver Island polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the British Columbia poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.
2024 election results
Dana Lajeunesse (NDP) won Juan de Fuca-Malahat in the October 19, 2024 British Columbia general election with 38.8% of the vote, 141 votes (0.6 points) ahead of Marina Sapozhnikov (CON). 23,997 valid votes were counted.
British Columbia votes on October 24, 2026, and all 93 seats are up for election. This map shows the 2024 results, the most recent completed election, on the same 93 riding boundaries. Many MLAs have changed party or sat as independents since 2024, so a riding's colour here is not always its current MLA's party. This page will be updated with the 2026 results once Elections BC publishes them.
Results by candidate
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dana Lajeunesseelected | New Democratic | 9,308 | 38.8% |
| Marina Sapozhnikov | Conservative | 9,167 | 38.2% |
| David Evans | Green | 5,522 | 23% |
Source: Elections BC, official results of the 2024 general election, and the 2023 electoral district boundaries.
How it compares
- The 5th-closest race of 93 ridings: a margin of 141 votes (0.6 points).
- New Democratic candidates won 44.9% of the vote across British Columbia; Dana Lajeunesse took 38.8% here, 6.1 points below that.
Nearby ridings
- Langford-Highlands · Ravi Parmar (NDP)
- Esquimalt-Colwood · Darlene Rotchford (NDP)
- Saanich South · Lana Popham (NDP)
- Victoria-Swan Lake · Nina Krieger (NDP)
- Cowichan Valley · Debra Toporowski (NDP)