Esquimalt-Colwood

Poll projection for the October 24, 2026 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 24, 2026, NDP would hold Esquimalt-Colwood, with 48.5% to 29.1%. That is very likely (95% of simulated elections).

Conservatives29.2% → 29.1%
NDP51.5% → 48.5%

Pale bar: 2024 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: NDP by 19.4 points (2024: NDP by 22.2). Conservatives win Esquimalt-Colwood if their lead province-wide is more than about +22.7 points; the poll average puts it at +3.3.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereConservatives win here2024 result (−1.6)Poll average (+3.3)

Province-wide lead in points (CON minus NDP). The black line is where Esquimalt-Colwood changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Vancouver Island polling

Esquimalt-Colwood is projected from the Vancouver Island poll average: Conservatives 32.3%, NDP 43.2%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%43%32%

This is a model, not a poll of Esquimalt-Colwood: pollsters do not survey individual ridings. It starts from the 2024 result here and moves it by the change in the Vancouver Island polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the British Columbia poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2024 election results

Darlene Rotchford (NDP) won Esquimalt-Colwood in the October 19, 2024 British Columbia general election with 51.5% of the vote, 6,586 votes (22.2 points) ahead of John Wilson (CON). 29,606 valid votes were counted.

Darlene Rotchford
Elected for New Democratic
6,586 voteswinning margin (22.2 points)
Darlene Rotchford 51.5%John Wilson 29.2%Camille Currie 19.3%

British Columbia votes on October 24, 2026, and all 93 seats are up for election. This map shows the 2024 results, the most recent completed election, on the same 93 riding boundaries. Many MLAs have changed party or sat as independents since 2024, so a riding's colour here is not always its current MLA's party. This page will be updated with the 2026 results once Elections BC publishes them.

Results by candidate

Esquimalt-Colwood 2024 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Darlene RotchfordelectedNew Democratic15,238
51.5%
John WilsonConservative8,652
29.2%
Camille CurrieGreen5,716
19.3%

Source: Elections BC, official results of the 2024 general election, and the 2023 electoral district boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 81st-closest race of 93 ridings: a margin of 6,586 votes (22.2 points).
  • New Democratic candidates won 44.9% of the vote across British Columbia; Darlene Rotchford took 51.5% here, 6.6 points above that.

Nearby ridings