Saanich North and the Islands
Poll projection for the October 24, 2026 election
Saanich North and the Islands was won by the Green in 2024. The Electorate's model treats it as a Green hold in every scenario, so it only projects the other ridings.
Pale bar: 2024 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.
Vancouver Island polling
Saanich North and the Islands is projected from the Vancouver Island poll average: Conservatives 32.3%, NDP 43.2%.
This is a model, not a poll of Saanich North and the Islands: pollsters do not survey individual ridings. It starts from the 2024 result here and moves it by the change in the Vancouver Island polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the British Columbia poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.
2024 election results
Rob Botterell (GRN) won Saanich North and the Islands in the October 19, 2024 British Columbia general election with 36.2% of the vote, 1,350 votes (4 points) ahead of Sarah Riddell (NDP). 34,046 valid votes were counted.
British Columbia votes on October 24, 2026, and all 93 seats are up for election. This map shows the 2024 results, the most recent completed election, on the same 93 riding boundaries. Many MLAs have changed party or sat as independents since 2024, so a riding's colour here is not always its current MLA's party. This page will be updated with the 2026 results once Elections BC publishes them.
Results by candidate
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Botterellelected | Green | 12,308 | 36.2% |
| Sarah Riddell | New Democratic | 10,958 | 32.2% |
| David Busch | Conservative | 10,145 | 29.8% |
| Amy Haysom | Independent | 635 | 1.9% |
Source: Elections BC, official results of the 2024 general election, and the 2023 electoral district boundaries.
How it compares
- The 29th-closest race of 93 ridings: a margin of 1,350 votes (4 points).
- Green candidates won 8.2% of the vote across British Columbia; Rob Botterell took 36.2% here, 28 points above that.
Nearby ridings
- Saanich South · Lana Popham (NDP)
- Langford-Highlands · Ravi Parmar (NDP)
- Victoria-Swan Lake · Nina Krieger (NDP)
- Esquimalt-Colwood · Darlene Rotchford (NDP)
- Delta South · Ian Paton (CON)