Chilliwack-Cultus Lake
Poll projection for the October 24, 2026 election
On The Electorate's poll average as of October 24, 2026, Conservatives would hold Chilliwack-Cultus Lake, with 52.6% to 42.6%. That is likely (82% of simulated elections).
Pale bar: 2024 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.
How close is it?
Projected margin: Conservatives by 10.1 points (2024: Conservatives by 9.2). Conservatives win Chilliwack-Cultus Lake if their lead province-wide is more than about −6.8 points; the poll average puts it at +3.3.
Province-wide lead in points (CON minus NDP). The black line is where Chilliwack-Cultus Lake changes hands, assuming every region moves together.
Rest of B.C. polling
Chilliwack-Cultus Lake is projected from the Rest of B.C. poll average: Conservatives 48.1%, NDP 33.4%.
This is a model, not a poll of Chilliwack-Cultus Lake: pollsters do not survey individual ridings. It starts from the 2024 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of B.C. polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the British Columbia poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.
2024 election results
A'aliya Warbus (CON) won Chilliwack-Cultus Lake in the October 19, 2024 British Columbia general election with 54.6% of the vote, 2,290 votes (9.2 points) ahead of Kelli Paddon (NDP). 25,022 valid votes were counted.
British Columbia votes on October 24, 2026, and all 93 seats are up for election. This map shows the 2024 results, the most recent completed election, on the same 93 riding boundaries. Many MLAs have changed party or sat as independents since 2024, so a riding's colour here is not always its current MLA's party. This page will be updated with the 2026 results once Elections BC publishes them.
Results by candidate
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| A'aliya Warbuselected | Conservative | 13,656 | 54.6% |
| Kelli Paddon | New Democratic | 11,366 | 45.4% |
Source: Elections BC, official results of the 2024 general election, and the 2023 electoral district boundaries.
How it compares
- The 37th-closest race of 93 ridings: a margin of 2,290 votes (9.2 points).
- Conservative candidates won 43.3% of the vote across British Columbia; A'aliya Warbus took 54.6% here, 11.3 points above that.
Nearby ridings
- Chilliwack North · Heather Maahs (CON)
- Abbotsford South · Bruce Banman (CON)
- Abbotsford-Mission · Reann Gasper (CON)
- Abbotsford West · Korky Neufeld (CON)
- Maple Ridge East · Lawrence Mok (CON)