Abbotsford-Mission
Poll projection for the October 24, 2026 election
On The Electorate's poll average as of October 24, 2026, Conservatives would hold Abbotsford-Mission, with 53.5% to 41.8%. That is likely (85% of simulated elections).
Pale bar: 2024 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.
How close is it?
Projected margin: Conservatives by 11.7 points (2024: Conservatives by 10.8). Conservatives win Abbotsford-Mission if their lead province-wide is more than about −8.4 points; the poll average puts it at +3.3.
Province-wide lead in points (CON minus NDP). The black line is where Abbotsford-Mission changes hands, assuming every region moves together.
Rest of B.C. polling
Abbotsford-Mission is projected from the Rest of B.C. poll average: Conservatives 48.1%, NDP 33.4%.
This is a model, not a poll of Abbotsford-Mission: pollsters do not survey individual ridings. It starts from the 2024 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of B.C. polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the British Columbia poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.
2024 election results
Reann Gasper (CON) won Abbotsford-Mission in the October 19, 2024 British Columbia general election with 55.4% of the vote, 2,629 votes (10.8 points) ahead of Pam Alexis (NDP). 24,417 valid votes were counted.
British Columbia votes on October 24, 2026, and all 93 seats are up for election. This map shows the 2024 results, the most recent completed election, on the same 93 riding boundaries. Many MLAs have changed party or sat as independents since 2024, so a riding's colour here is not always its current MLA's party. This page will be updated with the 2026 results once Elections BC publishes them.
Results by candidate
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reann Gasperelected | Conservative | 13,523 | 55.4% |
| Pam Alexis | New Democratic | 10,894 | 44.6% |
Source: Elections BC, official results of the 2024 general election, and the 2023 electoral district boundaries.
How it compares
- The 45th-closest race of 93 ridings: a margin of 2,629 votes (10.8 points).
- Conservative candidates won 43.3% of the vote across British Columbia; Reann Gasper took 55.4% here, 12.1 points above that.
Nearby ridings
- Abbotsford West · Korky Neufeld (CON)
- Abbotsford South · Bruce Banman (CON)
- Maple Ridge East · Lawrence Mok (CON)
- Langley-Abbotsford · Harman Bhangu (CON)
- Langley-Walnut Grove · Misty Van Popta (CON)