Bulkley Valley-Stikine

Poll projection for the October 24, 2026 election

On The Electorate's poll average as of October 24, 2026, Conservatives would hold Bulkley Valley-Stikine, with 50.4% to 36.0%. That is likely (90% of simulated elections).

Conservatives52.3% → 50.4%
NDP38.9% → 36.0%

Pale bar: 2024 result. Solid bar: projection. Shares of all votes cast.

How close is it?

Projected margin: Conservatives by 14.3 points (2024: Conservatives by 13.4). Conservatives win Bulkley Valley-Stikine if their lead province-wide is more than about −11.0 points; the poll average puts it at +3.3.

-10-50+5+10NDP win hereConservatives win here2024 result (−1.6)Poll average (+3.3)

Province-wide lead in points (CON minus NDP). The black line is where Bulkley Valley-Stikine changes hands, assuming every region moves together.

Rest of B.C. polling

Bulkley Valley-Stikine is projected from the Rest of B.C. poll average: Conservatives 48.1%, NDP 33.4%.

15%25%35%45%55%65%48%33%

This is a model, not a poll of Bulkley Valley-Stikine: pollsters do not survey individual ridings. It starts from the 2024 result here and moves it by the change in the Rest of B.C. polling average, so it does not know about candidates, incumbency or local campaigns. See the British Columbia poll average for the method, or open the projection in the interactive map to test your own scenario.

2024 election results

Sharon L. Hartwell (CON) won Bulkley Valley-Stikine in the October 19, 2024 British Columbia general election with 52.3% of the vote, 1,283 votes (13.4 points) ahead of Nathan Cullen (NDP). 9,544 valid votes were counted.

Sharon L. Hartwell
Elected for Conservative
1,283 voteswinning margin (13.4 points)
Sharon L. Hartwell 52.3%Nathan Cullen 38.9%Gamlakyeltxw Wilhelm Marsden 6.3%Rod Taylor 2.5%

British Columbia votes on October 24, 2026, and all 93 seats are up for election. This map shows the 2024 results, the most recent completed election, on the same 93 riding boundaries. Many MLAs have changed party or sat as independents since 2024, so a riding's colour here is not always its current MLA's party. This page will be updated with the 2026 results once Elections BC publishes them.

Results by candidate

Bulkley Valley-Stikine 2024 results by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Sharon L. HartwellelectedConservative4,992
52.3%
Nathan CullenNew Democratic3,709
38.9%
Gamlakyeltxw Wilhelm MarsdenGreen604
6.3%
Rod TaylorChristian Heritage239
2.5%

Source: Elections BC, official results of the 2024 general election, and the 2023 electoral district boundaries.

How it compares

  • The 27th-closest race of 93 ridings: a margin of 1,283 votes (13.4 points).
  • Conservative candidates won 43.3% of the vote across British Columbia; Sharon L. Hartwell took 52.3% here, 9 points above that.

Nearby ridings